BPM in 2014 – Laughably predictable?

As it makes a nice contrast to some of our earlier postings (see Stemming the tide and 10 lessons), here’s what Gartner Group has to say about future trends of BPM. I think it sounds like a great future … if you’re able to completely ignore the reality around you. You might also like to compare their predictions to the ‘Lost Year for BPM’ discussion in which we stated that process management has failed to deliver (when it was most needed)…

… by insisting that automation is a type of management 
… by still not understanding that processes either create or destroy value
… failed in that 20 years after the first big reengineering wave and 10 years after BPM became
   fashionable to talk about, we have still not managed to create a process mindset

These Gartner predictions seem so far removed from where even state-of-the-art users currently are that one can but wonder what has gotten into the good folks at Gartner – and I’m not knocking Gartner, some of my best friends work there

1. By 2012, Gartner expects 20 percent of customer-facing processes to be knowledge adaptable, assembled to meet the specific demands of individual customers using BPM.

The next evolution will be processes that self-adjust based on detected patterns in user preferences, consumer demand, predictive capabilities, trending, competitive analysis and social connections, according to Gartner. Analysts recommend that end-user organizations look to new vendors to augment their enterprise-class BPM technologies, or pressure their existing vendors to move to this new frontier for BPM.

2. By 2013, dynamic BPM will be essential for companies in need of process efficiencies in increasingly chaotic environments.

In order to reduce the latency of change in business processes, Gartner recommends a push toward a more dynamic form of BPM that enables changes to occur when and as needed. End-user organizations should examine the role of events used in combination with ad hoc or structured processes, say Gartner analyst, and start to identify which events are high priorities and those that help organizations exploit advantages.

3. Through 2014, composition (assembled software components) will be a stronger opportunity to deliver value from software than development.

Organizations need to recognize that the movement from applications to compositions will require a shift in how they think about projects, organizations and collaboration to achieve business goals, according to Gartner. Traditional development approaches don’t fit well with new service-oriented architecture and BPM compositions. Organizations will need to prepare to manage distributed teams with participants in new roles and relationships that are significantly more collaborative.

4. Business process networks will underpin 35 percent of new multienterprise integration projects by 2014.

Gartner anticipates that while companies will continue to consume horizontal-integration services they will increasingly desire prebundled solutions, such as BPNs.

5. By 2014, 40 percent of business managers and knowledge workers in Global 2000 enterprises will use comprehensive business process models to support their daily work, a 34 percent increase from 2009.

Instead of textual models, graphical and explicit process models that capture organizational knowledge will establish a shared language for business and IT.

BPM’s customary role has addressed routine sequential processes; however, a challenging economy is directing it toward broader, cross-boundary processes, Janelle Hill, research vice president for Gartner was quoted to say. And the focus heading into 2010 is new technologies that will enable the management of unstructured and dynamic processes, delivering greater knowledge worker productivity and competitive advantage.